Rob Siminoski has been in the theater, in one way or another, since he graduated from college. But after 10 years at the Universal Studios theme park in California, he is only No. 13 on the stage-managing roster. Even if the park, closed since March, reopens some attractions — the WaterWorld stunt show, say, or the Nighttime Lights at Hogwarts Castle — he is unlikely to be among the first to get the call.
His luck is that his union, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, offers an apprenticeship program for on-set movie electricians. It takes five years, and Mr. Siminoski, 33, is going to have to brush up his high school algebra to get in. Still, it offers a good balance of risk and reward.
“Everyone needs electricity,” he said. “You pull down six figures.”
The nation’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic will hinge to some extent on how quickly show managers can become electricians, whether taxi drivers can become plumbers, and how many cooks can manage software for a bank.
The labor market has recovered 12 million of the 22 million jobs lost from February to April. But many positions may not return any time soon, even when a vaccine is deployed.
This is likely to prove especially problematic for millions of low-paid workers in service industries like retailing, hospitality, building maintenance and transportation, which may be permanently impaired or fundamentally transformed. What will janitors do if fewer people work in offices? What will waiters do if the urban restaurant ecosystem never recovers its density?
Their prognosis is bleak. Marcela Escobari, an economist at the Brookings Institution, warns that even if the economy adds jobs as the coronavirus risk fades, “the rebound won’t help the people that have been hurt the most.”
Looking back over 16 years of data, Ms. Escobari finds that workers in the occupations most heavily hit since the spring will have a difficult time reinventing themselves. Taxi drivers, dancers and front-desk clerks have poor track records moving to jobs as, say, registered nurses, pipe layers or instrumentation technicians.
“Many of today’s unemployed workers may find it harder than in the past to find new jobs and advance through the labor market,” Ms. Escobari wrote.
CIRCLES ARE SIZED BY SHARE OF TOTAL JOBS
Decline in jobs
from the first
through the
third quarter
of 2020
0
%
Accounting clerks
Retail sales
workers
General managers
–5
Nursing and
home health aides
Computer
systems analysts
Office clerks
–10
Primary school
teachers
Stock movers
–15
Mail carriers
–20
Food prep workers
Preschool teachers
–25
Dishwashers
–30
–35
Waiters and waitresses
0%
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Share of workers who transition
into occupations that are growing
Decline in jobs
from the first
through the third
quarter of 2020
Share of workers
who transition
into occupations
that are growing
Job
Taxi Drivers
Waiters and Waitresses
Hosts and Hostesses
Bartenders
Childcare Workers
Production Clerks
Dishwashers
Preschool Teachers
Machinists
Insurance Agents
Teacher Assistants
Food Prep Workers
House Cleaners
Special Ed. Teachers
Practical and Voc. Nurses
Electricians
Education Administrators
Goods Buyers
Other Service Sales Rep.
Mail Carriers
Mechanic Supervisors
Stock Movers
Packaging Operators
Administrative Assistants
Building Cleaners
–55
–35
–34
–28
–28
–28
–27
–24
–22
–21
–20
–20
–18
