There has been much talk of an inverted yield curve indicating an impending recession, which has amped up traditional August market volatility.
It is, of course, brought to you courtesy of the usual fear-mongers, some of whom are politically bent, and of course Wall Street’s ever-growing crop of intellectually lazy “economists.”Fear not, because the recessionists really have no idea what they are talking about.
The text-book definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, or negative GDP. GDP for the first half of this year is running at an average of 2.55 percent — Q1 came in at 3.1 percent, and Q2 at 2.1 percent.
According to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow — the most prominent and unbiased estimator out there — Q3 is tracking at approximately 2.2 percent.Here’s the rub: Yield curve inversion held meaningful merit prior to the financial crisis, when the Fed wasn’t the biggest player in the US bond markets. But that has changed.